Trump's Capture of Maduro: Turning a Global Superpower into a Lawless Actor

Against the backdrop of the considerable disarray surrounding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “control” the country and “take back the oil”, there is no doubt – these actions create a truly chilling precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States carries a troubling legacy of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but this past Saturday morning saw its first major military attack on the soil of a South American nation. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” the President stated.

The move to assault another independent nation and abduct its leader – only a few days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – possesses far-reaching consequences. We all have reason to be worried.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has remarked that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other elements of the headless administration are considerably more radical.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who came to office pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is transforming it into a lawless actor.

He is convinced that the US’s might permits it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: consider the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He asserts that Venezuelan oil means this latest episode “won’t cost us a penny”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came absent any United Nations mandate or congressional approval; Democrats were not even informed and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to shatter them.

Put aside the message this sends to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will likely encourage more reckless actions.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

No one buys the pretext that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is propelled by the lure of oil as well as a desire to project strength, the worldview of key officials, and the desire for glory as his standing with the American public falters.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode highlights the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could yet press him to focus on domestic issues once more – but escalating insurance prices, economic unhappiness and ongoing controversies fuel his desire for external drama.

It has been less than 12 months into his four-year term. World leaders may live to repent if they fail to speak up today, given what – and who – could be next.