Trump Supporters for Mamdani and a New Progressive Alliance: The Biggest Surprises from NYC’s Mayoral Race

Only two days prior to the NYC race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange made a bold forecast – not just who would win citywide, and precinct by precinct. Lange, an expert in elections born and raised in New York City, has spent over a decade in progressive politics and emerged as a kind of well-known figure this year for his thorough analyses into city data and polling.

He released his highly detailed forecast map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani was victorious although failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his newsletter, his platform. He has a flair for clever terms. He highlighted, for instance, the divide between the progressive stronghold, stretching from Park Slope to another area to Astoria, where he predicted (correctly) that Mamdani would triumph by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. In those areas, “the Free Press and financial newspapers outrank the New York Times” in readership and the majority of electors leaned toward the independent, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Trends and Surprises

What was your election night?

It was necessary since they were dropping around 200,000 ballots into the tally every few minutes! I was actually somewhat anxious at the beginning: Mamdani led the initial ballots by 12 points, but there were large groups of votes that came in later and the advantage dropped from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, there was a world in which election day went somewhat badly for Mamdani, where Cuomo would have essentially increasing his support from the Democratic primary. However Mamdani added half a million votes to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He campaigned and massively expanded his base from the first round.

Coalition Building

How did the mayor-elect get additional support from?

He built the coalition that the left always wanted to build: diverse racially, youthful, it’s renters and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He improved significantly with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the earlier election. Additionally he further maximized his base of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He built the alliance that the left always wanted to build: multiracial, youthful, tenants and people squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were some supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It’s definitely a real thing, confined to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Islamic voters. Voters in ethnic enclaves that went for the former president previously went for Zohran now. However I wouldn’t say he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Effects

A major development of the night was the record turnout. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Participation was much greater than I had expected. I thought it could exceed two million, but it reached 2.3 million – that is a huge number of participants. There was a substantial anti-Mamdani block, energized, but his supporters was equally driven, and that was enough to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Right now you would say he’s favored to get over half. He’s at 50.4% but remain around 200,000 votes uncounted at that time. So I don’t think certain, but I believe probable, and I wish he achieves it because then none can claim Sliwa was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His support plummeted.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any area. Not even Tottenville in the borough, similar to an 88% Trump area. That truly was unexpected. Cuomo kept very white areas, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained all of these Republicans on the island who had a strong turnout. I think there was a lot of tactical voting by GOP voters. They were doing it before the former president endorsed for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome if the winning alliance failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your much mentioned left-wing base – was support for the candidate dominant in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think there was some weakening of the commie corridor in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and residents supported the independent. So there existed some opposition. But overall, largely the leftist base is a key factor why Zohran won – he was polling between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the election there was coverage on if the candidate was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he did?

Exist areas with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – like specific locales – where he performed strongly. But in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance was influential there. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they favored the independent. And also, there are newcomers from Eastern Europe in the borough, who were pretty staunchly supportive. So I don’t know if existed major surprises here, but he retained left-leaning areas and including sections of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what New York means politically? Will progressive base become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest figures from progressives come from a handful of neighborhoods in the boroughs. I’m sure that there will be additional examples – candidates will come from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

However I think that every city in the US could develop their own commie corridor. Urban places are the centers of progressive influence in America – because they’re young, tenancy is common and they represent locales where individuals struggle by the inequalities exist.