The Way This Bizarre Season Redefined the Traditional Coach of the Year Formula.

Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward pattern. It frequently acts as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a direct path: the coach who engineered the biggest turnaround wins the award. However, it sparks an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or merely the biggest shock.

Yet this year's race is fundamentally unique. The group of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with recent conference winners fading and recent strugglers ascending together. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a wild and thrilling year, he's facing five other elite candidates.

Below is how the projected ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been given the chance to display his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet this isn't a typical season!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a given following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him just a single place ahead of peers.

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