Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.
Major Barriers in the Selection Process
Several figures on the party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to avert any potential leadership challenge.
The Labour hierarchy reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of sources also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an offensive online group.
