A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
