Everyday Homicides in Mexico Fall Over a Third Under Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Government Figures

The average number of per-day murders per month in the country has fallen by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per fresh government data. However, security experts have advised that murder numbers may not point to improved national safety.

Marked Reduction in Daily Averages

Officials reported an average of almost 55 killings a day in November versus roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the leadership in September of last year. This data was provided by the chief of the nation's national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in murders that we’ve had over these months is very important,” Sheinbaum said, adding that last month the lowest figure of homicides were documented for any single November in the past decade.

Historical Background and Official Plan

Intense cartel rivalries, combined with the government’s highly militarised campaigns to confront the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s murder rate escalate in the past few years. The rate peaked at a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the nation's national statistics office.

That gave Mexico a murder rate more than 4x greater than that of the United States. However, murders have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her public safety approach for an apparently more pronounced reduction in homicides this year.

At a press conference in August, the Mexican leader said: “There is a strategy, we have oversight of the plan, and there is specific tracking town by town in some cases. The plan works. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The key elements of the President's security plan encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigative capabilities.
• Increased coordination between government departments.

Expert Warnings and Data Concerns

But, public safety analysts cautioned that using murder data to draw a conclusion of improved security was misleading. This is especially true in light of the uptick in other crimes such as abductions.

“It would be excellent news if this was a decrease, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the homicide data and think: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's cartels. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

According to the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall declined by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year versus the identical timeframe the previous year. However, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in certain states have surged by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on murders is no longer reliable for estimating the situation of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the ability or the inclination to accurately identify and classify corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to mask violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas added that relying on month-to-month averages of daily killings was similarly problematic because it could mask days when there were notably spiking levels of murders.

“Employing the per-day mean makes spikes of violent crime invisible,” he stated.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

An area where the administration can point to the effectiveness of its security strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 people were arrested between last October and November 2025 for major offenses, according to government figures. Over 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tons of narcotics confiscated.

“Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s highly politically advantageous,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Anger

Yet despite these measures, Mexico remains grappling with extreme violence, with multiple states in the grip of cartel-fueled conflict. Last month there was a notable murder of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders assassinated in the last 12 months.

Weeks after, thousands of youth took to the streets in the capital and across the nation to express their frustration at corruption and cartel violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a way to build a story of improvement. Politically it’s very successful, from a social perspective it’s extremely problematic,” the analyst said.